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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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